The victory of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers' Party, PT) in Sunday's (25th) presidential election could increase Brazilians' interest in Bitcoin, stablecoins and other investments linked to the crypto market. That is the assessment of Pedro Fontes, a research analyst at Mercado Bitcoin (MB), who sees the possibility of a weaker Brazilian real and persistently high interest rates as two factors capable of boosting demand for digital assets in the coming years.
Lula won the runoff with 51.79% of valid votes, against 48.21% for Flávio Bolsonaro (Liberal Party, PL), according to Brazil's electoral authority, the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE). The result secured the PT leader a fourth term, which will begin in January 2027, after an election in which the president overturned the gap he faced after the first round.
For Fontes, the new government's main economic challenge will be convincing investors that it can control the growth of public debt, bring down inflation and create conditions for interest rates to fall.
In his analysis, the specialist argues that doubts over fiscal policy could lead some investors to cut their exposure to Brazilian assets and look for alternatives traded internationally.
"While those answers are still pending, investors need a portfolio prepared for an uncertain path, and that is precisely the scenario in which crypto becomes an increasingly relevant piece," Fontes says.
The analyst notes that Brazil's gross public debt reached 82.9% of gross domestic product (GDP) in August 2026. The figure, confirmed by data from Brazil's central bank, the Banco Central do Brasil, rose 4.2 percentage points since the start of the year, reflecting above all the weight of interest payments on public accounts.
According to Fontes, the election result also sharpens scrutiny of measures recently announced by the government, including a 15.04% increase to the Bolsa Família welfare programme, the Desenrola 3.0 debt-relief programme, and a ban on sports betting.
Based on the specialist's calculations, these initiatives could represent up to €7 billion in new spending and lost revenue, a figure higher than the €1.7 billion margin built into the 2027 budget bill relative to the centre of the fiscal target.
The economic team, for its part, maintains that it will be able to accommodate these measures without breaching fiscal rules. In the analyst's view, the need to reconcile these commitments with debt control could generate greater volatility in Brazilian assets.
Bitcoin and stablecoins could gain ground as the dollar strengthens
The first effects are already being felt, with the dollar surging against the real and stocks falling sharply, alongside a rise in futures interest rates, which points to the market pricing in a higher Selic policy rate over the long term.
The specialist argues that part of the financial market had been pricing in a victory for Flávio Bolsonaro, seen as a candidate who might shift the direction of fiscal policy. With Lula's fourth term confirmed, investors now need to adjust their expectations.
This, however, is the analyst's projection rather than an inevitable consequence of the election result, and the picture seen this Monday could change as the days go by. The dollar's trajectory will also depend on the economic measures announced by the government, international conditions and central bank decisions.
For Mercado Bitcoin, a possible depreciation of the real could boost demand for stablecoins, cryptocurrencies designed to track the value of traditional currencies, chiefly the US dollar.
That is the case for USDT, issued by Tether, and USDC, issued by Circle, which allow holders to gain exposure to the US currency without buying physical dollars or holding a bank account abroad.
"In a scenario of a more pressured exchange rate, stablecoins such as USDT and USDC are a simple way to dollarise part of one's wealth, at any time and from small amounts," Fontes says.
Bitcoin could also gain a larger place in portfolios, according to the specialist. Unlike the real or the dollar, whose supply depends on the monetary policies of their respective countries, Bitcoin has predefined issuance rules, with a maximum cap of approximately 21 million units.
For Fontes, that feature, combined with the cryptocurrency's global trading, could make the asset an alternative for investors seeking to reduce their dependence on Brazil's economic outlook.
"For investors, this reinforces the logic of not relying solely on the real: Bitcoin, for instance, follows fixed issuance rules that no budget or government decision can change," he says.
In addition, since Bitcoin is traded internationally in dollars, a stronger US currency can push its price up in reais, even if its dollar price stays flat.
That mechanism, however, also works in reverse: a significant drop in Bitcoin on international markets can outweigh the effects of a stronger dollar, resulting in losses for Brazilian investors.
Stablecoins carry their own risks too, including problems with issuers' reserves, temporary loss of their peg, and difficulties with redemptions. Bitcoin, meanwhile, remains subject to sharp price swings, which rules out treating it as a guaranteed currency hedge.
High interest rates could favour tokenised fixed income
Beyond Bitcoin and stablecoins, Fontes believes persistently high interest rates could broaden interest in fixed-income investments offered by digital asset platforms.
In the specialist's assessment, the need to control inflation and concerns over the debt trajectory could lead the central bank to cut interest rates more slowly in the coming years.
"As expectations point to smaller, slower rate cuts, MB's tokenised fixed income, with options linked to the CDI benchmark rate and fixed-rate options, tends to keep paying attractive returns for longer," he says.
These products, however, have their own structures and risks, which depend on the underlying asset, the issuer and the contractual terms. The use of blockchain technology does not, by itself, mean an investment is covered by Brazil's deposit guarantee fund, the Fundo Garantidor de Créditos (FGC).
The analyst also flags the possible effects of high interest rates on Brazil's economy. According to him, higher public spending has helped sustain economic activity in recent years, but the cost of credit could limit future growth.
Fontes cites International Monetary Fund (IMF) projections of a slowdown in Brazilian GDP growth, from 2.2% in 2026 to 1.9% in 2027. The specialist also mentions a growth estimate of just 1.43% for next year in the Boletim Focus, the central bank's weekly survey of market expectations.
In this context, the analyst considers that international diversification could become more relevant for Brazilian investors, although that does not mean abandoning domestic assets.
The assessment comes at a time of expanding crypto use in Brazil. According to data from Brazil's federal tax authority, the Receita Federal, Brazilians moved €47.5 billion in crypto assets in the first half of 2026, a 21.3% increase compared with the same period in 2025.
Stablecoins lead this market. Between 2019 and 2025, they accounted for €189.7 billion in declared transactions, according to the figures cited by Fontes. They currently represent around 80% of the volume traded, up from 3.5% in 2019. USDT accounts for 88.7% of stablecoin transactions, according to the survey.
The data also show that the use of these assets extends to businesses. In the third quarter of 2025, approximately 4.7 million individuals and 100,000 companies carried out crypto transactions in the country.
For Fontes, these figures show that digital assets are already part of the financial strategies of a significant share of Brazilians and could gain further ground amid economic uncertainty.
This outlook, however, is not a consensus view on the effects of Lula's re-election on the market. Demand for cryptocurrencies will continue to depend on factors such as international prices, regulation, US monetary policy and the state of Brazil's economy, as well as decisions by the new government.
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