Seven cryptocurrencies analysts expect to surge in October

The cryptocurrency market enters October in a more constructive environment, though still waiting on important confirmations. After a positive September for most of the assets analysts track, Bitcoin is trading at higher levels again, institutional flows into ETFs have gained strength, and narratives such as tokenisation, DeFi, decentralised derivatives and network upgrades are back on the radar.

The month also carries a historical factor: the so-called "Uptober", a nickname given to October because, in most years, it has delivered positive performance for Bitcoin. While past behaviour does not guarantee further gains, analysts note that seasonality carries more weight when it coincides with improving fundamentals, a return of liquidity and concrete events on the calendar.

For Marcelo Person, Crypto Treasury & Markets Director at Foxbit, Bitcoin enters October with the revival of institutional flows back on the radar, while Ethereum, Sui, Ondo and Uniswap stand out as assets with their own catalysts. André Franco, CEO of Boost Research, applies a narrower filter: solid fundamentals, real value generation and events scheduled for the month. In his view, with US interest rates higher, the market tends to punish assets that depend solely on fresh inflows and favour projects with clearer value-capture mechanisms.

Pedro Fontes, a research analyst at Mercado Bitcoin, combines the market's two largest assets, Bitcoin and Ethereum, with infrastructure projects tied to tokenisation. The firm's list notes that four of the assets enter October with developments launched at the end of September or upgrades and improvements expected during the month itself.

Read also: Bitcoin outperformed all major assets in the third quarter — including gold

Here are the cryptocurrencies analysts are backing for October:

Hyperliquid (HYPE)

Hyperliquid once again stands out as one of the main picks for October. André Franco named the asset as one of the month's three leading theses, precisely because it has a concrete trigger on the calendar: the first payout from the mechanism that directs around 90% of the yield from USDC reserves deposited on the platform toward buying back HYPE.

According to Franco, this yield has been accruing since 26 August, with the first payout expected on 3 October. Estimates point to between US$11 million and US$13 million per 30-day cycle, or roughly US$135 million to US$180 million a year. The mechanism gains added relevance in the current macroeconomic context, since the yield comes from US Treasury bills — in other words, higher rates could mean more money for buybacks.

The thesis, however, carries a clear risk too. On 6 October, unlocks of 9.92 million tokens earmarked for contributors were scheduled, worth close to US$860 million at current prices. That volume far exceeds the absorption capacity of the monthly buybacks, so how holders behave after the unlock will be decisive for gauging the strength of the thesis in the short term.

Even so, Hyperliquid remains one of the cycle's most relevant narratives, combining decentralised derivatives, usage growth and value-capture mechanisms for the token. In a more selective market, the distinction between protocols with operational cash flow and assets that depend solely on expectation matters even more.

Ondo Finance (ONDO)

Ondo Finance stands out as one of the picks most directly tied to the tokenisation of real-world assets. The project was cited by both Foxbit and Mercado Bitcoin, which highlight its exposure to the growth of equities, funds and other financial instruments in on-chain environments.

According to Person, Ondo has been deepening its ties with the traditional financial system and advancing the infrastructure to bring assets such as equities and other financial instruments onto the blockchain. With tokenisation gaining traction among large institutions, ONDO enters October as one of the leading assets linked to the RWA thesis.

Fontes reinforces this reading, pointing out that Ondo is one of the projects most directly positioned to benefit from any future rules that would allow, under certain conditions, on-chain trading of tokenised US equities. The thesis gained momentum with the launch, on 24 September, of the Ondo Intelligent Portfolios — complete portfolios represented by a single token.

The first three products use strategies developed by BlackRock specifically for Ondo, extending the platform's proposition beyond the tokenisation of individual equities. In Mercado Bitcoin's assessment, this development places the project in a strong position to capture the trend of traditional financial products migrating to blockchain infrastructure.

The counterpoint is that the thesis still depends on progress in the rules for on-chain trading of equities in the United States, which remain under discussion. Even so, ONDO stands out as one of the assets most directly exposed to the convergence between traditional finance and crypto.

Uniswap (UNI)

Uniswap enters October as a representative of the growing convergence between DeFi and institutional markets. Person named the protocol as one of the assets to watch this month, particularly for its expansion into stablecoins, tokenised assets and new instruments for institutional exposure.

Uniswap is one of the market's leading decentralised exchanges and, according to Foxbit's analysis, is entering a new phase with the expected start of UNI futures trading on the CME. That development could broaden the ways institutions gain exposure to the token, bringing the asset closer to investors seeking regulated instruments to access the sector.

In addition, the protocol's expansion into tokenised assets reinforces the thesis that Uniswap could move beyond its traditional role as a decentralised crypto asset exchange. In a landscape of growing interest in tokenisation and on-chain trading of financial assets, Uniswap's liquidity and infrastructure could become important pieces of that market.

The asset also benefits from a broader narrative: DeFi protocols' attempt to demonstrate usage and value capture in an environment of higher interest rates and greater selectivity. Against that backdrop, UNI stands out as a bet on already-established infrastructure that is seeking new growth vectors.

Other cryptocurrencies to watch

Beyond the three highlighted assets, others feature on analysts' lists for October. Sui was named by Person as one of the cryptocurrencies with its own catalysts this month. The main event is Sui Basecamp 2026, scheduled for 7–8 October, a gathering expected to centre on discussions and announcements about payments, stablecoins, artificial intelligence and the evolution of the network's infrastructure. At the same time, the month opens with scheduled token unlocks, which could increase supply and bring volatility.

Chainlink was included in Mercado Bitcoin's selection as one of the key pieces of infrastructure for tokenised assets. The network connects blockchains to external data, such as equity and fund prices and other assets, and also enables communication between different networks. According to Fontes, CCIP (the system that connects blockchains) processed US$4.9 billion in the second quarter, up 353% year on year, and the technology is already used in initiatives with institutions such as State Street, Galaxy, VanEck and Ondo. The counterpoint is that institutional adoption may take time to convert into revenue and price.

Avalanche also features among Mercado Bitcoin's picks. The network is geared toward building custom applications and chains and already hosts tokenised products from asset managers such as BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, VanEck, WisdomTree and Apollo. October will be the first full month after the activation of Helicon, an upgrade that improves transaction processing and changes staking mechanisms, including cutting the minimum staking period to 48 hours. Part of the economic changes, however, will be rolled out gradually over 90 days.

Injective rounds out Fontes' list as a thesis tied to tokenised equities and reduced token supply. The network was built for financial applications such as exchanges, derivatives and tokenised assets. The thesis gained strength after Injective Institutional Services became a transfer agent registered with the SEC, allowing it to officially maintain records of ownership and transfers of securities. Another point cited is Stockdrop, a mechanism in which users permanently burn INJ tokens to receive rewards linked to tokenised equities.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana

Even with altcoins tied to tokenisation, DeFi and derivatives in the spotlight, Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana remain at the centre of October's analysis. Bitcoin remains the market's primary reference and, for Marcelo Person, enters the month with the revival of institutional flows back on the radar. The "Uptober" track record, combined with liquidity, ETF flows and the macro backdrop, keeps BTC among the top assets to watch.

Mercado Bitcoin notes that October has the highest median monthly return for BTC since 2011, close to 14%. The firm also points out that in the week ending 25 September, spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States took in roughly US$2.4 billion in net inflows, the largest weekly inflow of 2026. André Franco, meanwhile, assesses that the technical map has shifted up a level: September's high, at US$87,400, has become the ceiling to break, while US$81,000 now acts as immediate support. The main risk, in his view, lies with the Fed meeting on 28 October.

Ethereum enters October with an important technical catalyst. The Glamsterdam upgrade, considered by Franco the biggest change to the protocol since the move to proof of stake, will be activated on the Sepolia testnet on 6 October. The change aims to improve how the network organises blocks and allow transaction validation in parallel, laying the groundwork for processing more operations without losing security.

Fontes also highlights ETH's supply dynamics. More than 43.2 million units are locked in staking, an all-time high, while the amount held on exchanges has fallen roughly 73% since 2020, to 6.06 million. That reduces the supply readily available for sale at a time when demand could strengthen further through ETFs, corporate treasuries and greater investor flows.

Solana, for its part, remains one of the key networks to watch because of two triggers: Alpenglow and tokenisation. According to Mercado Bitcoin, the upgrade, expected to arrive with Agave 4.3 during October, aims to cut transaction finality time from around 12.8 seconds to just 150 milliseconds. The second catalyst is Project Harmonia, a partnership with Allfunds, which manages around €1.9 trillion, to expand institutional distribution of tokenised funds via Solana.

Despite this, André Franco dropped SOL from his October list because the trigger expected for September did not materialise and has not been given a new immediate date. In his view, Alpenglow has reached the testnet, but the next activation window does not include the upgrade. The divergence highlights the central point of Solana's thesis this month: the asset remains relevant on fundamentals and tokenisation, but part of the expectation hinges on confirmation of the technical timeline.

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