Bitcoin outperformed every major asset in the third quarter, gold included

Bitcoin was the best-performing asset among eight markets tracked in a survey covering nearly all of the third quarter of 2026. Between the close on 30 June and 28 September, the world's largest cryptocurrency gained 42.79%, outperforming oil, gold, silver, US stock markets, Brazil's Ibovespa index and the dollar.

The survey shows BTC rising from US$58,558 at the end of June to US$83,616 on 28 September — a rally that has continued since, already exceeding 44% by the last day of the month. Brent crude oil took second place, up 34.05%, followed by the Ibovespa, which gained 6.38%.

The rest of the assets performed much more modestly. Gold rose 4.71%, silver gained 3.26%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq advanced 2.46% and 2.31%, respectively. The DXY, an index measuring the dollar against a basket of major currencies, ended the period essentially flat, up just 0.03%.

The result stands out because the period was far from calm for markets. The quarter was marked by surging oil prices, rising US Treasury yields, doubts over inflation and a shift in direction from the Federal Reserve, which raised interest rates again in September. Even so, Bitcoin managed to decouple from other assets and post a far larger gain.

August rally pushes Bitcoin above US$80,000

Much of the gap was built from the second half of August onward.

On 18 August, Bitcoin was still trading near US$64,700. Just a week later, it was already around US$80,000. The move gained momentum after the US Treasury expanded its buyback of long-term debt securities in an attempt to ease pressure on longer-term rates.

The measure does not amount to a new round of monetary stimulus, but it temporarily pushed Treasury yields lower and weighed on the dollar. For Bitcoin, the effect was twofold: assets that pay no yield became relatively more attractive, and the market revisited the thesis of protection against the erosion of currencies' purchasing power — the so-called debasement trade.

The move also found a market primed to rise. The roughly 25% surge over that period triggered the liquidation of about US$4 billion in bearish cryptocurrency positions, amplifying what is known as a short squeeze.

At the same time, institutional money flowed back in force. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded eight consecutive sessions of inflows through 27 August, accumulating approximately US$2.8 billion over that stretch.

Broader data from CoinShares show a similar pattern. Digital asset investment products took in US$2.94 billion in the week ending 20 August, the largest weekly inflow of 2026 up to that point. In the first three trading sessions of the following week, another US$1.65 billion flowed into these products, with US$976 million directed to Bitcoin.

The regulatory backdrop also helped. Signals from Washington in favour of clearer rules for the sector contributed to improved investor sentiment. Bitcoin had risen about 16% after renewed pressure from the Trump administration for Congress to advance crypto market regulation.

Bitcoin rises even as the Fed raises rates

September brought a different test. On the 16th, the Federal Reserve raised the US benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, to a range of 3.75% to 4%. It was the central bank's first rate hike in more than three years, in response to still-persistent inflation. Most policymakers also signalled at the time the possibility of a further increase before the end of 2026.

Higher rates are normally a headwind for riskier assets. They increase the return on government bonds, raise the cost of credit and make more conservative investments relatively more attractive.

That pressure was precisely what limited the performance of US stock markets. In the survey, the Nasdaq gained just 2.31% over the period, while the S&P 500 rose 2.46%.

Bitcoin, however, reacted differently. The cryptocurrency was trading near US$76,000 at the close on 16 September and accelerated again in the following days. The following week, it traded above US$87,000, even with the Fed's tougher stance and rising US Treasury yields.

According to the asset manager, the reaction reflected a combination of fund inflows, accumulation by large investors and growing concerns over the US fiscal and monetary trajectory. In other words, part of the market came to view Bitcoin not only as a risk asset that benefits from lower rates, but also as an alternative to sovereign assets at a time of heightened concern over debt and inflation.

That reading gained weight because the quarter was also difficult for the bond market. Ten-year Treasury yields exceeded 5%, reaching their highest level since before the 2007 financial crisis, while long-term rates also rose in other major markets.

Bitcoin's performance therefore unfolded in a different environment from several previous rallies: rather than a clear combination of falling rates and strong risk appetite, the cryptocurrency rose while the market debated elevated inflation, monetary tightening and fiscal deterioration.

Oil surges to take second place

If Bitcoin led the survey, oil posted the second-largest gain — for rather different reasons. Brent rose from US$72.92 to US$97.75 over the period, a gain of 34.05%.

The advance was driven mainly by heightened geopolitical risk and concerns over global supply. The conflict involving Iran put the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important routes for global oil trade, at the centre of attention.

In September, prices even surpassed US$100 a barrel. On the 24th, for instance, Brent closed at US$106.60 after an attack by Houthi rebels on Saudi Arabia reignited fears of supply disruptions. Reuters described the period as the second-largest quarterly gain for oil since the second quarter of 2020.

The rise in energy prices, in turn, fuelled exactly one of the risks weighing on other markets: higher inflation and interest rates staying elevated for longer.

Gold managed to rise 4.71% and silver 3.26%, helped in part by demand for safe havens amid geopolitical and fiscal tensions. Toward the end of the period, however, rising US rates and a dollar recovery began to weigh on metals. On 24 September, Reuters pointed precisely to pricier oil and the Fed's tougher stance as factors pressuring gold.

In Brazil, the Ibovespa posted the third-best performance on the list, gaining 6.38%. The move came as Brazil's central bank, the Banco Central do Brasil, continued its cycle of cutting the Selic, the country's benchmark interest rate. In September, the rate was cut for the fifth consecutive time, to 13.75% a year, while the monetary authority's projections began pointing to inflation near target over the horizon relevant to monetary policy.

The Brazilian market also increasingly priced in the electoral outlook. Analysts note that improved polling numbers for Flávio Bolsonaro contributed to a rise in Brazilian assets in September, as investors viewed his economic proposals as more market-friendly.

Even with significant moves across virtually every asset class, none came close to Bitcoin.

Taking the closes of 30 June and 28 September, a hypothetical US$10,000 investment in Bitcoin would have grown to approximately US$14,300. The same amount in Brent crude would have reached about US$13,400. In the Ibovespa, it would equate to roughly US$10,600. In the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, the US$10,000 would have become just over US$10,200.

The survey thus shows a quarter in which different markets were affected by the same forces — oil, inflation, interest rates, geopolitics and fiscal policy — yet reacted in distinct ways. Bitcoin was the one that benefited most from that combination.

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