Bitcoin climbed back above $86,000 on Friday (2), after a mixed session on Thursday, as investors awaited the release of the US jobs report, a figure that could again shift expectations for Federal Reserve interest rates.
This morning, Bitcoin was up 3.4%, trading at $86,322 over 24 hours. In euros, the world's largest cryptocurrency stood at roughly 74,749 EUR, according to data from Portal do Bitcoin. Ethereum, meanwhile, gained 2.3% to $2,743. XRP rose 3.5%, while Solana gained 3.4% and BNB advanced 1.4%.
The recovery follows a week marked by sharp volatility in the US bond market. The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.34% on Thursday, its highest level in 24 years, before easing as buyers returned to fixed income. This morning the yield stood near 5.25%, still at an elevated level.
Long-term rates have been one of the main obstacles to a more consistent Bitcoin recovery. Higher Treasury yields increase the appeal of US government bonds and weigh on riskier assets, while the dollar also remains strong, close to 17-month highs against a basket of currencies.
Read also: Citi projects Bitcoin at $113,000 and Ethereum at $3,000 within 12 months
Even so, BTC managed to break this morning out of the $82,000–$85,000 range that had held the price since the end of September. On Thursday, the cryptocurrency had still slipped back toward $83,000 after failing to sustain a rally triggered by weaker-than-expected US inflation data.
Market expects slower job creation
Attention now turns to the September jobs report, due out on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters expect around 90,000 non-farm payrolls to have been added, down from 162,000 in August, with the unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.1%.
Wage growth will also be closely watched. Forecasts point to annual growth of around 3.2%, a key indicator since a stronger-than-expected acceleration could reignite inflation concerns and push the Fed toward a tougher stance.
Recent data have shown mixed signals. Weekly jobless claims fell to 197,000, close to a 57-year low, while announced layoffs dropped 18% in September. At the same time, earlier indicators pointed to weaker job openings and consumer confidence.
This backdrop has helped reduce bets on a further rate hike at the October meeting. On Friday, markets priced in roughly a 76% probability that the Fed would hold rates steady, up from just 29% a week earlier.
The US central bank itself raised rates again recently, lifting the target range to 3.75%–4%, after a long period without increases. A combination of still-resilient activity, inflation pressured by energy and production costs, and isolated signs of slowdown keeps markets divided on the central bank's next moves.
For Bitcoin, a weaker-than-expected jobs report tends to ease pressure on yields and Treasuries, while very strong numbers could revive bets on further monetary tightening. As a result, whether BTC holds above $86,000 will depend largely on how the bond market reacts once the data is released.
The improved sentiment is also visible in equity markets. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures were up this morning, helped by falling Treasury yields and oil prices, as investors awaited the jobs report.
Bitcoin thus begins October in a better position than it ended September, but still surrounded by the same factors that have capped recent gains: high interest rates, a strong dollar and uncertainty over the path of US monetary policy. Friday's jobs report could determine whether the break above $86,000 has the strength to hold, or whether BTC slips back into its recent consolidation range.
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