Bitcoin started the week lower and briefly traded below US$80,000 on Monday (26), pressured by investor caution ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. The market is also watching a fresh round of losses in technology stocks, amid concerns over the scale of investment in artificial intelligence.
This morning, Bitcoin was up slightly by 0.2%, trading at US$80,262 over 24 hours. In euros, the world's largest cryptocurrency stood at roughly €72,426. Ethereum, meanwhile, was flat at US$2,324. XRP fell 0.4%, while Solana rose 0.6% and BNB gained 0.4%.
Overnight, Bitcoin fell to below US$79,300 before recovering part of the loss and returning to the US$80,000 region. The cryptocurrency has lost approximately 4% since Thursday (22), when it was trading near US$84,000.
Analysts say the selling pressure reflects investors reducing exposure to riskier assets ahead of the Fed meeting, scheduled for Wednesday (28).
While the market expects the US central bank to hold rates in the current range of 3.75% to 4% a year, the main concern relates to the next steps in monetary policy, particularly the possibility of a further increase in December.
"This week, all eyes are on the Fed meeting, and it already looks like investors are reducing risk, with Bitcoin falling below US$80,000," said Jeff Mei, chief operating officer at exchange BTSE.
According to him, the combination of elevated inflation, expensive oil and tensions between the United States and Iran could push the Fed toward a tougher stance. "While the Fed probably won't change rates this week, we're watching closely how much the chair signals a December hike. That's what really matters for crypto," he added.
Higher interest rates tend to reduce the appeal of assets such as Bitcoin and equities, since they raise the cost of credit and favour fixed-income investments.
Another factor weighing on the market is the drop in technology stocks in Asia, particularly companies linked to artificial intelligence.
In South Korea, the Kospi index fell after Goldman Sachs cut its 12-month projection for the index by 25%. In Japan, semiconductor makers led losses on the Nikkei index.
The move reflects growing investor doubts over technology companies' heavy spending on AI infrastructure and the time needed to turn those investments into profit.
Oil, for its part, offered some relief on Monday. Brent crude fell around 2% to approximately US$114 a barrel, after comments from US President Donald Trump on the possibility of a deal with Iran.
Even so, elevated commodity prices continue to worry investors given their potential impact on global inflation.
Bitcoin needs to reclaim US$82,500, analysts say
Monday's decline underscores the importance of certain price levels tracked by analysts. Bitcoin needs to reclaim the US$82,500 region, a support level lost on Thursday (22), to show a more consistent return of buying strength.
While it remains below that level, the cryptocurrency may continue to struggle to sustain a recovery, particularly given the lack of risk appetite in international markets.
The move also comes after a reversal in flows from spot Bitcoin ETFs traded in the United States.
According to data cited by Bloomberg, these funds recorded net outflows of approximately US$772.4 million on Thursday and Friday, after taking in more than US$1 billion in inflows earlier last week.
For Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, Bitcoin is still showing some resilience in the face of concerns over debt levels at artificial intelligence companies, which have weighed on various asset classes.
The analyst believes, however, that the main point of attention now is the Fed meeting, followed by the US midterm elections in November.
Pratik Kala, portfolio manager at Apollo Crypto, notes that Bitcoin continues to be treated as a risk asset by many quantitative funds and traders using automated strategies, leaving it vulnerable during periods of greater market pessimism.
Week to bring decisions from four central banks
The week promises to be an eventful one for the cryptocurrency market, with interest rate decisions from four major central banks and earnings releases from companies important to the sector.
The main event will be the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday (28). The decision is expected at 3pm (Brasília time), followed by the press conference of the institution's chair, Kevin Warsh, at 3.30pm.
According to Vugar Usi Zade, CEO of exchange MEXC, investors will be more interested in the comments on December than in this week's decision itself.
"Since holding rates is already priced into market expectations, this decision is unlikely to be a significant positive catalyst," he said.
Also on Wednesday, the Bank of Canada will announce its monetary policy decision. On Thursday (29), it will be the European Central Bank's (ECB) turn to present its outlook for eurozone rates. The Bank of Japan will also announce its decision later in the week.
In addition, the United States will publish two important indicators on Thursday: the first estimate of third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for September, one of the key inflation gauges tracked by the Fed.
On the corporate side, the highlight will be the earnings release from Coinbase, one of the largest exchanges in the United States, due on Thursday (29).
Strategy, the largest publicly traded company holding Bitcoin on its balance sheet, will also report earnings the same day. Before that, on Tuesday (27), results from Galaxy Digital and Robinhood are due.
The earnings reports could offer signals on trading activity, institutional investor interest and the financial health of companies linked to the crypto market.
For Bitcoin, the combination of these events points to a week of potentially sharper swings, particularly if central bank messaging or economic indicators shift expectations for interest rates in the coming months.
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