Bitcoin may be approaching the end of its current bear market, according to an analysis by asset manager Hashdex. The firm compared the length of the cryptocurrency's past downturns and found that the period that began after the October 2025 peak was, by late September, already close to the time it took previous cycles to form a bottom.
The finding is part of Hashdex's Market Pulse report for the third quarter of 2026, which reviews cryptocurrency market behaviour, major economic developments and indicators that could influence prices in the coming months.
According to the report, Bitcoin's current bear market had lasted 359 days as of 30 September. In the three previous periods analysed by the manager, bear markets lasted 411, 361 and 377 days.
That means that, by the end of the third quarter, Bitcoin had already gone through a decline of similar length to those seen before its major historical recoveries.
The comparison suggests the cryptocurrency could be nearing a turning point, though Hashdex stresses there is as yet no confirmation that the current cycle's bottom has been reached.
The study defines a bear market as the interval between a cycle's peak price and the lowest value reached before a new upward phase begins.
By this methodology, the decline between November 2011 and January 2015 lasted 411 days. Between January 2015 and December 2018 it was 361 days, while the cycle that ended in November 2022 saw 377 days of decline.
The manager notes, however, that cycle length does not follow a fixed pattern. Changes in economic conditions, regulation and investor behaviour could make the current period longer or shorter than previous ones.
The report also notes that past performance does not guarantee future results. The historical similarity between cycles therefore functions as a market indicator rather than a prediction that Bitcoin will necessarily rise again.
The analysis gains relevance amid continued volatility in the cryptocurrency. After the recovery observed between August and September, Bitcoin came under renewed pressure in October, tracking swings in international stock markets and concerns over US interest rates and the artificial intelligence sector.
Despite this backdrop, Hashdex identifies other indicators that could favour a recovery in BTC.
Bitcoin may be running out of sellers
One of the main positive signals highlighted by Hashdex is a reduction in the amount of bitcoin held by short-term investors.
According to the report, so-called short-term holders — investors who have held their coins for less than 155 days — accounted for just 16.1% of Bitcoin's supply at the end of September. That is the lowest share in the historical series used by the manager.
The figure matters because these investors tend to trade more frequently, reacting more quickly to price swings and market news.
When this group's share shrinks, a larger portion of bitcoin ends up in the hands of investors who hold their positions for longer periods.
In Hashdex's assessment, this shift could indicate a reduction in the number of participants willing to sell their coins in the short term. The report describes the phenomenon as a possible exhaustion of marginal sellers — a term used for investors who could still put downward pressure on prices through further selling.
This may also help explain why certain negative headlines had a limited impact on Bitcoin during the third quarter.
One example cited by the manager involves Strategy, the company led by Michael Saylor and the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin. According to the study, the company's first bitcoin sale, in June, coincided with a 14.7% drop in the cryptocurrency.
The following three sales, carried out during the third quarter, had a considerably smaller impact on the market.
Hashdex interprets this difference as a sign that investors may have absorbed selling pressure more easily, in an environment where fewer participants remain willing to part with their coins.
A decline in short-term supply, however, does not guarantee a price increase. Bitcoin's price also depends on new buyers entering the market, available liquidity and global economic conditions.
Bitcoin moves closer to gold, further from tech stocks
Another point highlighted by Hashdex is a shift in how Bitcoin behaves relative to other assets.
For part of 2026, the cryptocurrency moved in tandem with technology stocks, particularly tracking the performance of the Nasdaq 100.
That relationship weakened during the third quarter, however, while the correlation between Bitcoin and gold increased.
According to the report, at the end of September the 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold stood at approximately 0.54, while its relationship with the Nasdaq 100 was 0.42.
Correlation is an indicator that measures how closely two assets move together. The closer it is to 1, the stronger the tendency for the assets to move in the same direction.
In Hashdex's interpretation, the closer relationship with gold may point to growing demand for Bitcoin as a hedge against the loss of value in traditional currencies.
The manager argues that the expansion of money supply and a weaker dollar could benefit assets with a limited or predictable supply, such as gold and Bitcoin.
The report also notes that governments have been building up growing holdings of the cryptocurrency. According to data compiled by Hashdex, government-held Bitcoin reserves have risen by approximately 80% since 2020, reaching 598,428 units by the end of September 2026.
Most of this amount still originates from judicial seizures, but the decision by the United States to retain certain seized bitcoin rather than sell it represents, in the manager's view, a shift in how governments treat the cryptocurrency.
Even so, correlations between different assets can change quickly. The data presented by Hashdex reflects behaviour observed through September and does not mean Bitcoin has permanently stopped tracking technology stocks.
Risk of further declines
Although it identifies signs that the bear market may be close to ending, Hashdex also points to factors that warrant caution from investors.
One of the main ones is the behaviour of the Fear and Greed Index, an indicator used to gauge prevailing sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.
According to the report, the index moved back into greed territory during the third quarter, after spending months at levels associated with extreme fear.
The manager reviewed Bitcoin's history since 2018 and found that readings above 55 points on the indicator were followed by a median maximum drop of approximately 20% over the following three months. This means that, historically, periods of greater optimism have also carried significant correction risks.
The 20% figure represents the median of the largest drops observed in the periods analysed, not a forecast of a decline in the coming months.
Another risk highlighted by Hashdex is the competition between the cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence sectors for investor capital.
According to the study, in the first quarter of 2026 alone, artificial intelligence companies received approximately five times more venture capital investment than the entire crypto sector had raised since 2023.
This gap could limit the funding available to blockchain startups and projects, particularly in an environment of greater investor selectivity.
The manager is also following developments in US regulation, particularly the CLARITY Act, a bill aimed at establishing clearer rules for the digital asset market in the United States.
The Senate vote on the bill was delayed, increasing uncertainty over whether it will pass before the current legislature ends in January 2027.
If that does not happen, the proposal may need to be reintroduced in Congress, prolonging discussions over the sector's regulation.
For Hashdex, these combined factors show that Bitcoin is going through an important moment in its market cycle.
The proximity to the historical length of past bear markets, the reduced share held by short-term investors and the shift in correlation with other assets are all signals the manager considers relevant.
However, the possibility of further corrections, economic uncertainty and regulatory risks mean the end of the bear market cannot yet be considered confirmed.
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