Bitcoin's bear market may have come to an end, and the current price near US$80,000 represents an accumulation opportunity for long-term investors. That is the assessment of Galaxy Digital, the crypto investment firm founded by billionaire Mike Novogratz, which believes the worst of the cycle is behind it and that the asset could return to its all-time high above US$125,000.
In a report, Alex Thorn, Galaxy's head of research, argues that Bitcoin found its bottom in June, when it traded as low as below US$58,000. Since then, the cryptocurrency has gained roughly 38%, although it remains around 35% below the record set in October 2025.
"We believe the bear market ended in June and that Bitcoin is in the accumulation phase that preceded all previous rallies," Thorn said.
According to the analyst, a combination of more favourable technical indicators, reduced selling pressure and concerns over US public debt supports the positive outlook for the coming months.
Galaxy argues that the current moment shares characteristics with the periods observed after downturns in previous cycles, when long-term investors resumed accumulating Bitcoin ahead of more pronounced recoveries.
However, the firm's optimism contrasts with the market's recent behaviour. In recent days, Bitcoin has again struggled to hold US$80,000, pressured by uncertainty over US interest rates and investor caution ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting.
Why does Galaxy believe Bitcoin has already passed the worst?
One of the main arguments in the report is the recovery of indicators used to identify long-term trends.
Bitcoin has moved back above its 50-week moving average, an indicator representing the cryptocurrency's average price over that period and commonly used by analysts to gauge market direction.
According to Galaxy, BTC had remained below that level for 44 weeks, but managed five consecutive weekly closes above it through 18 October.
The firm interprets the move as a possible sign that the most intense phase of selling is over.
Another important indicator is the 200-week moving average, watched by investors to identify potential long-term support zones. During the June downturn, Bitcoin tested that range before beginning its recovery.
Beyond the charts, Thorn highlights changes in investor behaviour. According to Galaxy, asset managers' long exposure in Bitcoin futures contracts traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) fell 57% compared with the week the cryptocurrency hit its all-time high in October 2025.
The reduction indicates that some investors seeking short-term gains have scaled back their exposure to the market. "The speculative money left, the base remained, and everything else is priced for perfection," the analyst said.
Galaxy also points to a slowdown in the movement of bitcoins held by long-term investors. According to the survey, wallets that had been inactive for at least five years transferred an average of 34,000 BTC per month in 2026. That volume is lower than the 47,000 BTC monthly average recorded in 2025 and the 67,000 BTC seen in 2024.
For the firm, this behaviour suggests a decrease in selling pressure among long-term investors.
At the same time, US spot Bitcoin ETFs are estimated to have absorbed roughly 87,000 BTC since the June low, pointing to the persistence of significant institutional demand.
Although the funds have recorded notable outflows in recent sessions, Galaxy considers that the accumulated demand helps support the recovery thesis.
US debt could favour Bitcoin, but risks remain
Another of Galaxy's arguments is that rising US public debt strengthens interest in assets with limited supply, such as Bitcoin.
According to the report, US federal debt reached US$40.44 trillion on 20 October, while the 2026 fiscal deficit stood at approximately US$1.99 trillion.
Thorn argues that the growth of these obligations increases the likelihood of economic policies that erode the dollar's purchasing power over time.
In that scenario, Bitcoin could benefit from its supply, capped at 21 million units, a feature that sets it apart from currencies issued by central banks.
Galaxy also notes that institutional interest in stablecoins and tokenisation continues to advance, even as Bitcoin receives less attention from investors.
According to the firm, the global stablecoin supply has grown 129% since the start of 2024, reaching US$304 billion. In Thorn's view, this shows that capital continues flowing into digital asset infrastructure, even if it is not being directed immediately into Bitcoin.
The analyst considers a recovery of the cryptocurrency to its all-time high above US$125,000 a plausible scenario. Based on the roughly US$81,000 price used in the report, that would require a gain of close to 53%.
Galaxy, however, acknowledges that its projection may not materialise. One of the main warning signs would be a weekly close for Bitcoin below US$76,540, the level corresponding to the 50-week moving average identified in the report. If the cryptocurrency loses that level and fails to reclaim it within a month, the view that the bear market has ended would be weakened.
The study also mentions risks related to broader declines in financial markets, cyberattacks and future advances in quantum computing.
In addition, Galaxy operates in the crypto investment market and holds exposure to Bitcoin, which should be taken into account when weighing its projections.
For now, the firm's conclusion is that reduced selling pressure and the recovery of long-term indicators have created favourable conditions for investors willing to hold the cryptocurrency over extended periods.
"We believe the bottom has already been reached, selling pressure has eased, the fiat debasement argument has gained strength, and the crowd has left," Thorn summarised in the report.
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