Sberbank, Russia's largest bank, is forecasting a substantial expansion of domestic cryptocurrency trading as the country's new digital asset legislation begins to take effect. Deputy chairman of the board Anatoly Popov said regulated trading volume on Russian exchanges could reach about 4 trillion rubles, roughly $46.4 billion, in the framework's first year, with that figure potentially climbing to around 7.5 trillion rubles, approximately $87.1 billion, by 2029.
The projections follow legislation signed by President Vladimir Putin in early August. Its first provisions take effect on September 1, 2026, while additional rules governing the issuance and circulation of crypto assets are not scheduled to apply until September 2027. Exchanges already operating in Russia have been granted a transition period running until March 2027 to bring their operations into compliance.
Under the new framework, retail investors will be permitted to buy the most liquid cryptocurrencies up to an annual limit of 300,000 rubles, equivalent to about $3,700, per intermediary. Qualified investors face no such ceiling. Cryptocurrencies remain prohibited as a means of payment for goods and services inside Russia, though digital assets can be used in foreign trade contracts between Russian and foreign counterparties, an allowance that has applied since 2024.
Sberbank Says It Is Ready
Popov said the bank had prepared in advance and already holds practical experience handling cryptocurrencies. "We prepared for this in advance and already have practical experience working with cryptocurrencies. Once the law is fully in force, we will adapt Sber's existing products to the new requirements and gradually expand our offering. For example, we will further develop lending secured by digital assets," he said.
The bank's forecasts place Russia among the jurisdictions moving to formalise crypto trading within a strict regulatory perimeter rather than opening unrestricted retail access. The tiered structure, distinguishing between retail and qualified investors and phasing in rules over roughly a year, suggests authorities are seeking to manage the pace at which trading volume enters the regulated system.
For European observers, the scale of the projected market, tens of billions of dollars within a year, underscores how quickly a large domestic banking incumbent expects trading activity to migrate from informal or offshore channels into a licensed framework once legal clarity arrives. The extended timeline for full implementation, stretching into 2027, also indicates that the transition is expected to be gradual rather than immediate.
