Polymarket has been unreachable from French internet connections since July 16, 2026, when the Autorité nationale des jeux (ANJ) ordered providers to block the platform, citing 578,751 French visits recorded in June alone. Transactions from France had already been geoblocked since November 2024. Polymarket contested the order, filing a legal challenge against the ANJ on August 21, 2026. The case remains unresolved. The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) considers the platform to be operating without authorization anywhere in Europe.
None of that has stopped money flowing into French-themed contracts. As of Friday morning, October 23, Polymarket hosted 30 open markets tied to French political, economic and social life, with cumulative volume of $161.2 million. Open interest, the money actually locked into live positions, stood at $4.3 million, with $4.8 million traded in the preceding seven days alone.
Unrest reshapes the betting board
Cost-of-living protests organized by a gilets jaunes coordination on October 17 turned into looting, and the Limoges city hall was burned. Polymarket opened markets on a state of emergency and a state of siege the following afternoon. The state of emergency contract, worth less than $24,000 on Monday morning, had risen to $276,539 by Friday, a jump of more than elevenfold in four days. Bettors currently put the probability of a state of emergency proclamation by October 31 at 6.5%, rising to 18% by year-end — this despite Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau having demanded one since Monday. The state of siege contract has drawn $218,414 in volume, with bettors assigning it a 3% chance.
Curfew-specific contracts, opened October 20, show how quickly sentiment moved: the probability of a full day without curfew in central Paris by Saturday fell from 15.5% on Thursday to 1.3%. The same measure for October 31 sits at 56%. Lyon's equivalent odds stand at 5.5% for Saturday and 63% by month-end. A second gilets jaunes protest act is set for Saturday, October 24. Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez offered his resignation, which Emmanuel Macron refused; Nuñez himself acknowledged
