The European Union's three financial supervisory authorities — the EBA, EIOPA and ESMA — presented a joint risk update on 10 September 2026 to the Financial Stability Table of the EU's Economic and Financial Committee, describing the bloc's financial system as resilient overall but exposed to a set of structural vulnerabilities that deserve closer attention heading into autumn.
The update, covering autumn 2026, singles out three areas of concern: external dependencies, emerging technologies, and the rapid growth of private credit. None of these is presented as an immediate threat to stability, but the authorities argue each warrants monitoring given how quickly conditions could shift.
Reliance on non-EU providers
On external dependencies, the authorities note that the EU banking sector relies heavily on non-EU providers for ICT infrastructure and payment systems. Markets for clearing, repo transactions and credit ratings are also largely intermediated by non-EU entities, a concentration the supervisors flag as a structural exposure for the bloc's financial infrastructure. Separately, banks face funding gaps in certain non-EU currencies, specifically US dollars, British pounds and Swiss francs.
Quantum computing and legacy crypto wallets
Among emerging technologies, the update references the trajectory of quantum computing. IBM has forecast commercial use of quantum computing within four years or less, a timeline that has implications for cryptographic security across sectors. CryptoQuant estimates that approximately 6.89 million bitcoin sit in legacy wallets that could potentially be exposed to a future quantum attack if cryptographic standards are not updated in time.
The European Commission has already set out a roadmap requiring member states to begin transitioning to post-quantum cryptography by the end of 2026, with a further deadline of 2030 for high-risk uses. The pairing of IBM's commercial timeline with the Commission's own transition schedule underscores why supervisors are treating the issue as a near-term rather than theoretical concern.
Private credit still contained
On private credit, the authorities describe the EU market as relatively small compared with its global counterpart, with limited aggregate exposures among banks and insurers. The growth of the sector is flagged as a trend to watch rather than a current source of instability.
A resilient but uneven picture
The broader market backdrop described in the update is mixed. EU equity markets reached record highs during a period of Middle East tensions, while bond yields rose with only limited spread widening. Banks continue to show solid profitability and high capital ratios sustained by organic capital generation, and asset quality remains resilient with low levels of non-performing loans — though the authorities expect some deterioration in commercial real estate and SME portfolios.
Investment funds show notable concentration risk of their own: EU UCITS equity funds and alternative funds carry substantial exposure to the United States, whereas bond funds are more geographically diversified.
The Joint Committee of the European Supervisory Authorities used the update to call for stronger crisis preparedness, better coordination on resolution planning, and regulation capable of adapting more quickly to the risks it identified, from technological disruption to external market dependencies.
