Bitcoin is trading lower this Tuesday (8), around US$ 78,000, pressured by a combination of rising oil prices, higher global interest rates and caution ahead of the next US inflation reading. BTC pulled back after surpassing US$ 82,000 last week, when it reached its highest level in around three months.
This morning, Bitcoin is down 0.9%, trading at US$ 78,653 over 24 hours. In euros, the world's largest cryptocurrency stood at roughly 68,647 EUR, according to data from Portal do Bitcoin. Ethereum, meanwhile, is stable at US$ 2,484. XRP is down 0.3%, while Solana falls 1% and BNB gains 1.3%.
The market's main focus has returned to US monetary policy. After a stronger-than-expected payrolls report on Friday, investors are again pricing in around a 60% chance of a 0.25 percentage point rate hike by the Federal Reserve at its 16 September meeting. The report showed 162,000 jobs created in August, above the 55,000 expected, while the unemployment rate stood at 4.1%.
This scenario weighs on non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin and gold, as higher rates make government bonds more attractive and reduce appetite for risk. The 10-year Treasury yield moved back above 4.8%, while government bond yields in the United Kingdom, France and Germany also rose, amid fiscal and inflation concerns.
Oil prices reignite inflation fears
Oil is another source of pressure. Brent crude is approaching US$ 100 a barrel, while WTI reached the US$ 94-95 range, its highest level since June, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply risks. The rise in oil prices increases fears of more persistent inflation and narrows the room for the Fed to ease monetary policy.
The next test for this reading comes on Friday, with the release of the US consumer price index. The market expects a monthly rise of 0.4% in the headline index and 0.2% in the core measure, which excludes food and energy. A higher-than-expected figure could reinforce bets on a rate hike and add further pressure on Bitcoin, equities and gold.
Caution is also visible in the crypto derivatives market. According to data cited by CoinDesk, the taker buy-sell ratio in futures remains in negative territory, signalling more aggressive selling amid rising oil prices, higher rates and increased bets on Fed tightening. Trading volume rose, but open interest was largely unchanged, indicating more rotation of positions than a strong inflow of new leveraged bets.
Strong yen raises alarm over carry trade
Beyond the United States, the market is watching the sharp appreciation of the yen. The Japanese currency reached its highest level in around seven months, near 152.89 per dollar, as investors increase bets on a rate hike by the Bank of Japan. This move has reignited concerns about the unwinding of the so-called carry trade, a strategy in which investors borrow in low-interest currencies such as the yen to invest in higher-yielding assets.
When the yen rises quickly, this trade can become less attractive and force investors to cut positions in risk assets around the world. That is why the rise of the Japanese currency has been closely watched by markets such as technology stocks, crypto assets and emerging-market currencies.
Gold also felt the pressure and pulled back to around US$ 4,390 an ounce, while global stock markets traded with no clear direction or lower. In the United States, stock futures opened under pressure, with the market still digesting the rise in oil prices and interest rates ahead of Friday's inflation data.
For Bitcoin, the short-term picture remains divided. The loss of the US$ 80,000 range shows the rally has lost momentum after the payrolls report, though BTC is still trying to hold above US$ 78,000. A benign CPI reading could ease bets on a rate hike and restore strength to the market. A hotter inflation print, on the other hand, could send Bitcoin back to test support levels in the US$ 76,000 to US$ 75,000 range.
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