Bitcoin struggles to hold $78,000 on Thursday (10), erasing the previous day's recovery amid a fresh round of pressure on the crypto market, hitting memecoins and other smaller altcoins hardest.
This morning, Bitcoin is down 2.1%, trading at $77,862 over 24 hours. In euros, the world's largest cryptocurrency stood at roughly €67,378, according to data from Portal do Bitcoin. Ethereum, meanwhile, is down 2%, at $2,467. XRP falls 4.2%, while Solana drops 3.6% and BNB retreats 5.3%.
The decline is not confined to Bitcoin. The move is sharper in higher-risk assets within the crypto market. CoinDesk's memecoin index retreats around 10% in 24 hours, while its small-cap cryptocurrency index loses 5.1%. The CoinDesk 100, which tracks a broader basket of digital assets, falls 3.7% over the same period.
Traditional markets alone do not explain the pullback. S&P 500 futures were edging slightly higher, Nasdaq contracts were steady, gold was up slightly and the dollar index also showed little change. The issue, once again, lies in the macroeconomic backdrop: high oil prices, pressured long-term rates and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's next decision.
Oil remains one of the main sources of concern. Brent has traded back above $100 a barrel, while WTI passed $97, amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. The rise in energy prices reinforces the risk of more persistent inflation and puts pressure on expectations for US interest rates.
At the same time, Treasury yields remain elevated even after the US Treasury announced a $6 billion buyback programme for bonds maturing in 10 to 20 years. The measure fell short of what part of the market had expected and did not stop long-term rates from rising: the 10-year yield returned to near 4.85%, while the 30-year approached 5.3%.
This environment tends to weigh on Bitcoin because higher rates increase the return on government bonds and reduce investors' willingness to take on risk in assets that do not yield income of their own. The pressure also shows up in derivatives: sentiment in futures has turned negative again, with the ratio between aggressive buys and sells pointing to stronger selling pressure. Open interest fell around 2%, to $139 billion, while volume rose, a sign of rotation and moderate capital outflow.
The market is now watching two US inflation readings. The producer price index, the PPI, is due out on Thursday, while the consumer price index, the CPI, will be released on Friday. The figures should help calibrate bets for the Fed's meeting on 15-16 September, which has gained importance following strong economic data and rising oil prices.
According to a Reuters survey, most economists still expect the Fed to hold rates steady in September, but a growing number of analysts see a chance of at least one hike by year-end. Markets, for their part, have priced in a probability of close to 60% for a rate increase at the next meeting.
Bitcoin ETFs see second day of outflows
Pressure is also coming from US spot Bitcoin ETFs. The funds recorded net outflows of around $120 million on Wednesday, the second consecutive day of redemptions. The main impact came from ARKB, run by Ark Invest and 21Shares, which lost around $78 million. GBTC, from Grayscale, saw outflows of $27 million, while BlackRock's IBIT lost $20 million.
Tracking data for the ETFs also shows net outflows of approximately $100.7 million on 9 September, with ARKB posting the largest redemption of the day and Morgan Stanley's MSBT the only fund with a notable inflow, of around $4.5 million.
By contrast, other crypto products performed better. Ether ETFs took in nearly $35 million after losses on Tuesday, while funds linked to XRP and Solana each received around $12 million. Still, the positive flows into other assets were not enough to offset the outflows from Bitcoin funds.
ETF behaviour will be one of the key gauges over the coming days. If redemptions continue, Bitcoin may struggle to reclaim the $80,000 range. On the other hand, a return of inflows, combined with weaker inflation data, could ease rate pressure and push BTC back towards the $82,000 region.
For now, Bitcoin remains caught between price support near $78,000 and resistance created by the macro environment. The sharper drop in memecoins and small caps shows that risk appetite has cooled, as investors wait for clearer signals on inflation, the Fed and institutional flows before resuming buying with more conviction.
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