Bitcoin is trading near $78,500 on Monday morning (31), a slight gain over the past 24 hours, even amid a more risk-averse environment after new US strikes on Iran pushed oil prices higher and weighed on global stock markets.
This morning, Bitcoin is up 0.6%, trading at $78,507 over 24 hours. In euros, the world's largest cryptocurrency stood at roughly €68,113, according to data from Portal do Bitcoin. Ethereum, meanwhile, is down 0.4% at $2,450. XRP has dropped 1.4%, while Solana is down 1.6% and BNB has fallen 1.1%.
BTC's resilience is notable because traditional markets started the week on a cautious footing. Brent crude rose towards $90 a barrel after US forces struck Iranian targets, reviving fears of energy-driven inflation and renewed tensions in the Middle East. European stocks and US futures were retreating, while Treasury yields remained sensitive to bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike.
Despite the geopolitical noise, Bitcoin remains on track to close August with a gain of more than 24%, its best performance for the month since 2017 and its largest monthly gain since November 2024. The advance contrasts with partial profit-taking in altcoins, reinforcing the sense that market flows are currently more concentrated in BTC.
The week has also opened under the influence of Kevin Warsh's remarks at Jackson Hole. On Friday, the Fed chair reiterated concerns about inflation and raised the odds of another rate hike in September. The dollar briefly traded near a two-week high after Warsh's comments, while the probability of a September rate hike rose to around 58%.
This backdrop is limiting a stronger rally in cryptocurrencies. Higher rates increase returns on US bonds, strengthen the dollar and typically reduce appetite for risk assets such as technology stocks and crypto assets. Even so, Bitcoin is showing resilience near $78,000, having tested the $81,000 range last week before pulling back after the Fed's more hawkish tone.
Strong dollar and pressured yen on the radar
Another factor markets are watching is the yen. The Japanese currency has again drifted towards the 160-per-dollar level, seen as sensitive because it could raise the likelihood of intervention by Japanese authorities. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said recent moves in the yen were "fairly contained" and did not warrant coordinated action of the kind previously taken by the United States and Japan.
The relevance of this to Bitcoin is indirect but significant. The yen has long served as a funding currency for investments in global assets, including US equities and Treasuries. Disorderly moves in the currency can trigger adjustments to leveraged positions, put pressure on US yields and tighten financial conditions. Shocks of this kind tend to spill over into the crypto market as well.
The end of the month will also be important for US spot Bitcoin ETFs. After a recent run of inflows, the market wants to know whether flows held up following the shift in rate expectations after Jackson Hole, or whether Warsh's comments brought the inflow streak to an end. On Friday, reports indicated Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of around $202 million, breaking a run of inflows.
In the short term, Bitcoin remains caught between two forces. On one side, the strong monthly gain, resilience to the geopolitical shock and dominance over altcoins are supporting the price near $78,000. On the other, oil above $90, a strong dollar, a pressured yen and higher odds of a US rate hike are limiting the room for a quick move back towards $80,000.
If BTC manages to hold above the $77,000–$78,000 range, the market could again target resistance at $80,000. A clearer break below that level, however, would open the door to profit-taking after Bitcoin's best month in almost two years.
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