Bitcoin today: BTC tries to climb back to $79,000, but $100 oil and Fed keep recovery in check

Bitcoin is trying to recover this Wednesday (9), after falling below $78,000 the previous day. BTC touched $77,666 at one point, but climbed back above $79,000 this morning, a move that leaves the cryptocurrency roughly flat over 24 hours and up just under 2% for the week.

This morning, Bitcoin is up 0.5%, trading at $79,077 over 24 hours. In euros, the world's largest cryptocurrency was at roughly 67,942 EUR, according to data from Portal do Bitcoin. Ethereum, meanwhile, is up 0.3%, at $2,490. XRP is up 1.7%, while Solana gains 0.4% and BNB slips 0.8%.

The recovery, however, is still taking place against a difficult macroeconomic backdrop. Brent crude climbed back above $100 a barrel for the first time since July, while WTI passed $94, driven by the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and attacks on energy infrastructure in the region. The rise in oil prices has revived inflation concerns and is keeping US bond yields elevated.

With energy costs rising and inflationary pressure back on the radar, investors continue to price in around a 60% chance of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve at its meeting on 15 and 16 September, according to data from the CME FedWatch tool. The 10-year Treasury yield remains near 4.8%, while the 2-year yield stays above 4.3%.

This scenario tends to weigh on Bitcoin because higher rates increase the return on government bonds and reduce appetite for risk assets or assets without their own yield. Even so, BTC has shown some resilience within its recent range between $75,000 and $82,000, which traders point to as the key levels ahead of the Fed decision.

Zcash steals the spotlight with $500 million ETF

While Bitcoin remains stuck on macro concerns, some of the money in the crypto market has moved into Zcash (ZEC). Grayscale said its Zcash ETF, traded under the ticker ZCSH, surpassed $500 million in assets just two weeks after debuting on NYSE Arca.

The fund has already received more than $70 million in cumulative inflows since launch, in addition to a $100 million investment from DCG International Investments, according to Grayscale. The ETF now holds more than 550,000 ZEC, equivalent to about 3% of the cryptocurrency's circulating supply, estimated at 16.9 million tokens.

Strong demand helped Zcash top $1,240 on the day, up more than 8%, with roughly $1 billion in 24-hour volume and a market value close to $20 billion. That pushed the privacy-focused cryptocurrency into the top ten of the market over the past week.

US inflation data is the next test

Investors' focus now turns to the last economic data releases before the Fed meeting. The producer price index, the PPI, is due on Thursday, while the consumer price index, the CPI, will be released on Friday. These figures should help determine whether the US central bank has room to hold rates steady or will need to tighten monetary policy again.

Core consumer inflation is expected to ease to 2.4%, a figure that could ease some rate-hike bets if it comes in at or below expectations. On the other hand, a stronger reading would revive pressure on Treasuries, the dollar and risk assets.

Jasper De Maere, an OTC trader at Wintermute, said the market is trading more on interest rates than on crypto-specific factors. According to him, volatility should increase towards the end of the week, with $75,000 and $82,000 as key levels for Bitcoin ahead of the Fed decision.

Analysts at Bitfinex also noted that this week's test will be whether Bitcoin ETFs can maintain positive inflows even with the 2-year yield above 4.34%. In their view, if the market keeps buying BTC despite elevated short-term rates, that could signal that the monetary policy rate has stopped being the main constraint on the cryptocurrency's rise.

For now, Bitcoin remains in a holding pattern. The recovery towards $79,000 shows that buyers continue to defend drops below $78,000, but the rally would only gain strength with a clearer break above the $82,000 range. Until then, oil, inflation and the Fed continue to set the market's pace.

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