The Bitcoin price rose again this Thursday (3), trading around US$ 77,500 and recovering part of its recent losses after touching the US$ 76,000 region. The gain comes amid a partial easing in the dollar and US Treasury yields, as investors slightly trim bets on a further rate hike by the Federal Reserve this month.
This morning, Bitcoin is up 1%, trading at US$ 77,538 over 24 hours. In euros, the world's largest cryptocurrency stood at roughly €65,410, according to data from Portal do Bitcoin. Ethereum, meanwhile, is flat at US$ 2,391. XRP is up 2.3%, Solana gains 1.1% and BNB rises 2.5%.
BTC's recovery follows a stretch of pressure caused by oil above US$ 90, rising global interest rates and a strong dollar. WTI remains elevated because of tensions between the United States and Iran, but global markets found some relief on Thursday, with a partial pullback in Treasury yields and the DXY index.
That relief came after weaker US labour market data. The ADP report showed private payrolls rose by 38,000 in August, below economists' expectations, signalling a slowdown in hiring. The figure eased some of the pressure on rates, but did not eliminate expectations of monetary tightening by the Fed.
Investors still see close to a 60% chance of a rate hike in September, down from bets that reached 67% earlier this week. The figure has retreated from its recent peak but remains well above last week's level, before Kevin Warsh's tougher remarks at Jackson Hole.
US jobs data becomes a test for Bitcoin
The next major trigger for the market will be the official US jobs report, the payroll, due on Friday. The figure could determine whether the Fed has room to hold rates steady or remains under pressure to raise them to contain inflation.
For Bitcoin, a weaker payroll would likely be seen as positive in the short term, since it would reduce bets on a rate hike and could weaken the dollar. In that scenario, the US$ 80,000 region would come back into view. Conversely, a strong figure could reignite pressure on risk assets, especially if accompanied by still-elevated wage growth.
Analysts at Bitfinex, cited by CoinDesk, noted that the average cost basis for active investors on the network is close to US$ 76,350. Bitcoin came close to that level before buyers stepped in, which helps explain the defence of the US$ 76,000–77,000 range in recent days.
Despite the rebound, September still inspires caution. Analysts note that the month has historically been negative for BTC, with an average return of -2.95% since 2013. Still, they reckon a correction within the month would not necessarily invalidate the broader recovery trend, provided Bitcoin holds key support levels.
The technical picture also remains mixed. Bitcoin broke above key moving averages after its recent surge, but still faces resistance near May's high, around the US$ 82,800 region. On the downside, a loss of the US$ 75,600 level could raise the risk of a deeper drop.
ETFs remain in focus after fresh outflows
Beyond the macro backdrop, spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US remain at the centre of attention. After a sharp outflow of around US$ 236 million, driven mainly by BlackRock's IBIT, the funds registered a fresh redemption, this time much smaller, of around US$ 9.3 million, according to SoSoValue data.
The figure shows that ETF pressure has eased, but has not yet turned into consistent net inflows. For the market, the question now is whether the recent redemptions were merely one-off adjustments by large managers or the start of a weaker phase for institutional demand for Bitcoin.
Across other crypto products, the picture remains more favourable. Ethereum ETFs kept up a positive streak of inflows, while funds linked to XRP, Solana and Hyperliquid also recorded net inflows.
Another point investors are watching is the dollar's behaviour. The DXY pulled back after the weak ADP figure but still trades close to an important level. Since Bitcoin tends to have an inverse correlation with the US currency, a fresh round of dollar strength could limit BTC's recovery.
For now, the market reads Thursday's gain as an attempted recovery, not confirmation of a full rally resumption. To improve the picture, Bitcoin needs to clear the US$ 78,000 range and then push back towards US$ 80,000. A loss of the US$ 76,000 level, on the other hand, would hand pressure back to sellers and cast doubt on the resilience seen in recent days.
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