Bitcoin has once again started behaving more like gold amid recent pressure in the US government bond market. According to data from Bitwise, the 90-day correlation between BTC and the precious metal reached its highest level in nearly six years, a move that reinforces the view held by part of the market that the cryptocurrency has been gaining ground as a hedge against the risk of traditional currency debasement.
The convergence followed a rise in yields on longer-dated US Treasuries and the decision by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to expand purchases of long-term bonds. In the following week, Bitcoin rose 22.4%, its largest weekly gain since March 2024, while gold advanced around 5% and equities fell, noted André Dragosch, head of research for Europe at Bitwise, in a report.
According to Dragosch, the last comparable reading of correlation between Bitcoin and gold occurred in 2020, during governments' and central banks' response to the Covid-19 crisis, marked by heavy fiscal and monetary stimulus. Bitcoin also ended August with a negative correlation to the DXY index, which measures the dollar against a basket of global currencies, suggesting that weakness in the US currency tends to favour both BTC and gold.
“When things get serious and macroeconomic forces are strong, investors increasingly stop discriminating between Bitcoin and gold as they navigate rising currency debasement risks,” Dragosch said. “In these scenarios, Bitcoin has recently started to look like an amplified version of gold.”
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Bitcoin decouples from equities, but analysts urge caution
The move has also reignited debate over how much Bitcoin still behaves like a technology asset versus an alternative store of value. According to Glassnode, BTC's 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 fell close to zero during August's rally, while US equities remained largely flat.
Even so, Glassnode itself cautions that such episodes of decoupling during heavy sell-offs in sovereign bonds tend to be short-lived. In other words, the drop in correlation with equities may point more to a one-off moment of market exhaustion than to a definitive structural shift in Bitcoin's behaviour.
Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, also weighed in on the debate. He said that over the past six months, Bitcoin had a lower correlation with US equities than gold, small-cap companies, emerging markets and even Treasuries. In his view, the argument that BTC is merely a proxy for the Nasdaq loses force when other traditional assets are also moving more in line with equities.
This discussion gained traction after Bitcoin broke through the US$80,000 mark in late August, posting a monthly gain of around 25%, before giving back some of the gains and pulling back to the US$76,000 region. At the point cited by analysts, BTC was trading near US$77,600.
Glassnode identified a concentration of coins held by long-term investors between US$83,000 and US$86,000, a range that could act as a resistance zone should Bitcoin rise again. On the other side, the main accumulation floor appears between US$62,000 and US$65,000, a region where medium- and long-term buyers would have greater presence.
ETFs and profitable supply reinforce a stronger market reading
Another metric tracked by analysts is the share of Bitcoin supply in profit. At the end of August, with BTC near US$78,000, around 68% of the supply was in profit, compared with 65% when the price was at a similar level in May, according to Glassnode.
The difference suggests the market is reaching this price range with a somewhat healthier structure than in the previous episode. Even so, a significant share of investors remain close to breakeven, which could increase selling pressure during recovery periods.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States also helped sustain the rally. At the peak of the rally, the funds took in an average of US$290 million a day, while daily trading volume in the ETFs stayed close to US$3 billion.
The overall reading is that Bitcoin has gained strength as an asset sensitive to liquidity, the dollar and fiscal risk, moving closer to gold during periods of stress in the bond market. But questions remain over how long this decoupling from equities will last. For analysts, the next test will be whether BTC can turn this stronger correlation with gold into a more lasting shift — or whether it will move back in step with risk assets once pressure on yields eases.
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